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The March Job Report Informs Traders: Global Week Ahead

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This Global Week Ahead will be dominated by:

  • President Trump's plans for reciprocal tariffs, while 
  • The latest U.S. March Federal non-farm jobs data
  • An Australian central bank meeting. and 
  • A key Eurozone consumer inflation report all land


That shows traders there's plenty for equity markets to consider.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for stock traders—
 

(1) The U.S. Widens Tariffs on April 2nd


Trump has said April 2nd, the deadline by which he will unveil a full suite of trade policies, including tariffs, will be known as "Liberation Day.”

His sneak-peak of what to expect in the form of a 25% duty on imported vehicles to the United States is another example of the unpredictable way he has communicated trade policy.

That's made for a turbulent trading environment, in which planning for anything from a new factory, to a holiday, to managing an investment portfolio, has become more complex.

The fear of an across-the-board approach to duties had been mitigated somewhat in recent days by hints from the White House that Trump might take a more targeted approach — giving the U.S. dollar and Wall Street stocks a modest lift.

But the reality is investors are still very much in the dark.
 

(2) At 5:30 am ET on Friday, the March Federal Non-Farm Jobs Data Arrives


Concerns about the health of the U.S. economy will be tested by the latest monthly jobs data.

The April 4th non-farm payrolls report is expected to show employment growth slowed in March to 128,000 from 151,000 in February, according to a Reuters poll.

But such growth may still reassure investors that the economy is not sliding toward a recession. As it stands, Fed funds futures suggest traders bake in at least two interest rate cuts by year-end to shore up the economy.

Investors are also watching to see the extent to which the effort led by Trump ally Elon Musk to slash the federal workforce will have become evident in the data.

Under Musk's DOGE government efficiency drive, tens of thousands of workers from the 2.3 million-strong federal workforce have been fired or agreed to take a buyout.
 

(3) On Monday, the First Quarter of 2025 Ends


The first quarter wraps up on Monday and it hasn't been dull, or gone the way that even the most experienced investors had anticipated.

To put it bluntly, everything has been “Trumped.” Trillions have been wiped off the super-sized tech firms that have dominated world markets for years.

Gold has soared to a record high, and the dollar is set for a quarterly fall of almost 4%.

European defense stocks have surged as the U.S. has signaled its military support is no longer guaranteed. Even China's tech stocks have roared.

Q2 doesn't look like it is going to get any easier, either. Just a couple of days in and Trump will be detailing his grand global tariff plan.

For investors, the big question is whether it will end up triggering recession.
 

(4) On Tuesday, Eurozone Consumer Inflation Data Arrives


Eurozone inflation data on Tuesday is the next hurdle for traders trying to gauge whether the European Central Bank cuts rates in April.

Markets have grown more confident in recent days, now pricing in a roughly 80% chance of another cut on April 17, bringing the ECB's key rate to 2.25%, though policymakers look more split than markets.

But further rate cuts this year seem more a matter of timing and further risks to the bloc's growth loom with all eyes on April 2. What's more, fresh tariffs on autos just announced have blurred the European outlook further.

The bigger debate is what happens further out.

Markets are already thinking about what Germany's spending bonanza and Europe's broader push to bolster its defenses mean for growth and inflation.

BNP Paribas, for example, already expects the ECB to hike rates next year.
 

(5) On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Makes Its Policy Decision


The Reserve Bank of Australia is moving closer to what would be only its second interest rate cut since 2020.

A benign inflation reading and a surprise cooling in the job market have seen to that.

Even so, traders and analysts expect the RBA will forgo any April Fools surprises when it wraps up a meeting on Tuesday and keep interest rates on hold.

After all, the central bank just cut at its last meeting in February, and struck a markedly hawkish tone, warning markets away from assuming more was to come.

The official, quarterly consumer price numbers could still prove crucial on April 30, but investors have grown more confident on a May rate cut, putting the odds at around 70%.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks


(1) Reddit (RDDT - Free Report) : This is a $110 a share stock with a market cap of $19.9B. It is found in the Internet – Software industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

 

Zacks Investment Research
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Reddit Inc. operates a website that organizes digital communities.

It organizes communities based on specific interests that enable users to engage in conversations by sharing experiences, submitting links, uploading images and videos and replying to one another.

Reddit Inc. is based in San Francisco, California.

(2) Ubiquiti (UI - Free Report) : This is a $309 a share stock with a market cap of $18.7B. It is found in the Wireless Equipment industry. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

Zacks Investment Research
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Headquartered in New York, Ubiquiti Inc., along with its subsidiaries, offers a comprehensive portfolio of networking products and solutions for service providers and enterprises.

Its service-provider product platforms offer carrier-class network infrastructure for fixed wireless broadband, wireless backhaul systems and routing; while enterprise product platforms provide wireless local area network (WLAN) infrastructure, video surveillance products and machine-to-machine communication components. The company was earlier known as Ubiquiti Networks Inc. and traded under the symbol “UBNT.”

Ubiquiti offers high-performance radios, antennas, software, communications protocols and management tools that are designed to deliver carrier and enterprise class wireless broadband access and other services primarily in the unlicensed radio frequency spectrum.

The company offers its products and solutions through disruptive price offering. They are also integrated as well as easy to deploy and manage. Moreover, Ubiquiti follows a scalable community-led approach based on product feedback of customers.

Ubiquiti has two different product categories, namely, Service Provider Technology (13.6% of total revenues in second-quarter fiscal 2025) and Enterprise Technology (86.4%).

  • The Service Provider Technology segment includes airMAX, airFiber and EdgeMAX embedded radio and antenna product lines. This segment also includes products like base stations, radios, backhaul equipment and Customer Premise Equipment (“CPE”). 
  • The Enterprise Technology segment includes UniFi and mFi product lines. This comprises Unifi Access Point ("UAP") products, Unifi Video Products, Unifi Voice over IP ("VOIP") phones and Unifi switches.


(3) Fresenius Medical Care AG and Co. (FMS - Free Report) : This is a $24 a share stock with a market cap of $14.4B. It is found in the Medical Instruments industry. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

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Based in Bad Homburg, Germany, Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA is one of the largest integrated providers of products and services for individuals undergoing dialysis following chronic kidney failure.

Formed in 1996 following the merger of the dialysis business of Fresenius AG and the U. S. dialysis service provider, National Medical Care, Fresenius Medical provides products and services across the entire dialysis value chain throughout the World.

Through its network of over 3,600 dialysis clinics across the world, the company offers dialysis services and products in more than 120 countries and employs over 109,000 staffs in more than 50 countries.

Fresenius Medical manufactures a variety of durable medical devices used in the treatment of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). Devices like Hemodialysis Machines, Peritoneal Dialysis Machines, Granuflo Concentrate Mixing Tanks and monitoring devices like the Crit-line platform are included in the company’s product pipeline.

Starting first quarter 2023, Fresenius Medical reported through two segments — Care Delivery and Care Enablement. Previously, the company used to report under Health Care Products and Health Care Services segments.

  • The Care Delivery segment: This segment consists of the company’s Dialysis Services and the Care-Coordination (non-dialysis laboratory services), which accounted 80% of net revenues in 2023.
  • The Care Enablement segment: This segment comprises of the company’s Dialysis machines, dialyzers, dialysis solutions, hemodialysis concentrates, bloodline systems, water treatment systems, dialysis drugs and other medical products. The segment accounted for 20% of net revenues in 2023.

 

Fresenius Medical derives its revenues majorly from four geographical locations: North America, EMEA, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

 

Key Global Macro


The big macro prints this week will be in the Friday March U.S. nonfarm payroll report.

On Monday, the Mainland China NBS manufacturing PMI for MAR comes out. Consensus looks for 50.5, while the prior reading is 50.2.

The Chicago PMI for March comes out too. I see a 45.4 reading should follow a 45.5 prior print.

On Tuesday, the Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI comes out. I see a 49.3 reading should follow a similar 48.3 prior reading.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should keep its policy rate at 4.1%. There is a presser.

On Wednesday, the U.S. ADP private payroll job gains for March should be out. The prior reading was low-ish +77K.

On Thursday, the HCOB composite Euro Zone PMI is out for March. 50.4 should follow a prior reading of 50.4.

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims come out. I see a 224K prior reading, and a 4-week average of 224K.

On Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls for March should be up +128K, down from a prior +151K reading.

The U.S. household unemployment rate should rise to 4.2% from 4.1%.
 

Conclusion


On March 26th, 2025 Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian provided his latest 4 earnings points.

Here are the key points:

(1)  Zacks expects total Q1-25 earnings for the S&P500 index to be up +5.9% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues.

This would follow +13.8% earnings growth, on +5.5% revenue growth in Q4-24.

(2) Q1-25 earnings estimates have steadily come down since the quarter got underway.

Current +5.9% expected growth pace is down from +10.4% at the start of Jan. 2025.

(3) Zacks expects Q1-25 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies to be up +13.1% from the same period last year on +11.9% higher revenues.

Exclude that ‘Mag 7’ contribution?

Q1-25 earnings for the rest of the S&P500 index would be up +3.8% (versus +5.9%).

(4) For the ‘Mag 7’ group, Zacks expects total earnings to increase by +12.6%, on +9.5% higher revenues in 2025.

Exclude the ‘Mag 7’ contribution?

  • Zacks expects total earnings for the remaining S&P500 companies to grow +8.7% in 2025
  • This compares favorably to +3.9% growth in 2024, and -5.2% in 2023


That’s it for me.

Have an excellent week trading and investing.

Warm Regards,

John Blank, PhD
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist


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Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) - free report >>

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